Value Guides

Hi folks - I'm just getting back into collecting after a very long absence.
I've seen a number of online lists of coin prices (Coin World Trends, PCGS)
and I'm wondering - which of these is the best indicator of current bid and
ask prices?

Thanks,
Keith

Subject: Value Guides
From: "Keith Tilley"
Date: 7/18/2003 6:48 PM Eastern

a number of online lists of coin prices (Coin World Trends, PCGS) and I'm
wondering - which of these is the best indicator of current bid and ask prices?

All of them and none of them are equally and unequally reliable and unreliable.
Use the Advanced Search feature of Groups.Google for this newsgroup and look
for Titles that include "Price Guide." You will find more discussion than you
could want.

The guides are only guides. The price you pay will depend on how well you
bargain. You will not find much difference among them, but the differences you
do find will make your life interesting. Realize that nominally at least
Trends is a retail guide and Greysheet (the Coin Dealer Newsletter) is a
wholesale guide with Bid and Ask prices. However, it is also true that so many
collectors subscribe to CDN that it is really a retail price guide. Dealers
routinely price coins at "under Trends" or "under Red Book" because that is
what collectors expect. No one ever pays true retail ... except that there are
some coins (small US gold, for instance) for which the markets do dictate that
dealers pay retail for the coin and collectors pay over retail. For most
coins, Trends and Redbook are the upper limit of retail pain and most sales are
for less than these prices.

Again, it matters not so much what some price guide says, but how much charisma
you bring to the process. I used a 20 year old Red Book for several years
because it does show RELATIVE prices: this is rare; that is common; this is
easy to find in VF; that is hard to find in XF; and so on.




----------------
Michael E. Marotta
ANA R-162953

South of Provemont wrote:

Subject: Value Guides
From: "Keith Tilley"
Date: 7/18/2003 6:48 PM Eastern

a number of online lists of coin prices (Coin World Trends, PCGS) and I'm
wondering - which of these is the best indicator of current bid and ask prices?

All of them and none of them are equally and unequally reliable and unreliable.
Use the Advanced Search feature of Groups.Google for this newsgroup and look
for Titles that include "Price Guide." You will find more discussion than you
could want.

The guides are only guides. The price you pay will depend on how well you
bargain. You will not find much difference among them, but the differences you
do find will make your life interesting. Realize that nominally at least
Trends is a retail guide and Greysheet (the Coin Dealer Newsletter) is a
wholesale guide with Bid and Ask prices. However, it is also true that so many
collectors subscribe to CDN that it is really a retail price guide. Dealers
routinely price coins at "under Trends" or "under Red Book" because that is
what collectors expect. No one ever pays true retail ... except that there are
some coins (small US gold, for instance) for which the markets do dictate that
dealers pay retail for the coin and collectors pay over retail. For most
coins, Trends and Redbook are the upper limit of retail pain and most sales are
for less than these prices.

Again, it matters not so much what some price guide says, but how much charisma
you bring to the process. I used a 20 year old Red Book for several years
because it does show RELATIVE prices: this is rare; that is common; this is
easy to find in VF; that is hard to find in XF; and so on.

----------------
Michael E. Marotta
ANA R-162953

The best indicator of current bid - ask is the Coin Dealer News Letters

http://www.greysheet.com/

JAM

On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 22:48:53 GMT, "Keith Tilley"
wrote:

Hi folks - I'm just getting back into collecting after a very long absence.
I've seen a number of online lists of coin prices (Coin World Trends, PCGS)
and I'm wondering - which of these is the best indicator of current bid and
ask prices?

I post this periodically here.

What follows is a distillation of many people's opinions and
observations, including my own. Additions and corrections are
welcomed. This document is copyrighted -- please don't republish
elsewhere. HMTL version available he
http://www.rg.cointalk.org/guide.

Getting the most from coin price guides -- periodic post

- - -
IN A NUTSHELL: Price guides are just that -- guides -- and some of
them appear to be guides to help dealers sell coins at attractive
prices rather than accurate reflections of market prices.
- - -

How much a coin is worth is crucial information. It affects what
you're willing to pay for a coin, what you're willing to sell it for,
and how you look at and appreciate coins in general.

There's lots of information about coin pricing out there, online and
off. Some pricing guides are more accurate than others. No single
guide is foolproof. All guides are approximations of market values.
That's why, if you really want to know the market, you should also see
what coins are actually selling for. Options include eBay and various
auction houses, such as Heritage, Teletrade, Bowers and Merena,
Stacks, and Classical Numismatic Group (for ancient coins), not to
mention local and national coin shows and local coin shops.

Here's a rundown of the most commonly used price guides for U.S.,
world, and ancient coins.


Red Book

Officially titled A Guide to United States Coins, the Red Book is a
comprehensive book of U.S. coin retail prices with a list price of
$10.95 and is available at most coin shops. It's a good book to have,
but more for background information than for pricing. By the time the
book is out, some of the pricing information in it is dated. Also,
prices are included for far too few uncirculated grades.

The Blue Book, officially titled A Handbook of United States Coins, is
a similar, though smaller, book that includes the prices that dealers
typically pay for coins.


U.S. Coin Digest
http://www.krause.com

This is a new coin price book from Krause Publications (publisher of
Coins Magazine, Numismatic News, and other periodicals), with a list
price of $11.95. It's much like the Red Book, but it includes pricing
for more grades. With Morgan dollars, for example, the Red Book has
pricing for only six grades, while U.S. Coin Digest has prices for
eleven grades (but it still ignores pricing for VF-30 grades). It also
includes a bit more background information about coins in general.


Greysheet
http://www.greysheet.com

Officially called the Coin Dealer Newsletter, this is a pricey
subscription periodical, costing $98 per year (you can buy the current
issue for $4). It's the most commonly used price guide by dealers in
setting their own prices, and though it contains wholesale prices,
it's a good choice for savvy collectors too. The prices are based on
coins graded according to industry standards "as exemplified by PCGS
and NGC," though pricing for properly graded raw coins is considered
too in the compilation of its figures.

Greysheet "bid" is the amount that dealers are typically willing to
pay other dealers for a coin. Greysheet "ask" is the price dealers
typically ask other dealers for a coin, which is higher. For
collectors, one rule of thumb is to add 25 to 75 percent to bid when
you're buying and to subtract 10 to 40 percent from bid when selling.

The Bluesheet, officially called the Certified Coin Dealer Newsletter,
includes bid prices for "sight-unseen" slabbed coins. These prices are
lower than prices in the Greysheet.

The Greysheet's biggest weakness is that the Coin Dealer Newsletter
ignores the current state of the grading services. It ranks some of
the services in terms of how the market values coins in their slabs.
But it fails to rank ICG, SEGS, ACG, and NTC, four grading services
that have a significant market presence. And it ranks two grading
service with virtually no market share, INS (International Numismatic
Society Authentication Bureau), which folded around 1992, and NCI
(Numismatic Certification Institute), which folded around 1988.
Whether deserved or not, this creates an aura of unreliability over
all of its data.


Trends
http://www.coinworld.com

This is part of Coin World, another subscription periodical, costing
$36.95 per year. Unlike the Greysheet, it provides retail pricing, and
it's the most commonly used price guide for this purpose. It generally
does a good job, but like all price guides, it can be inconsistent,
with the prices for some series significantly above actual market
prices and the prices for other series significantly below. Coin World
itself can be a good way to keep up with developments in numismatics
and a good read.


Heritage's Value Index
http://www.heritagecoin.com/info/prices.asp

You have to register to access this information, but registration is
free. The prices are based on wholesale and auction transactions for
PCGS and NGC certified coins, which encompasses not only Heritage
auctions but other observations of the marketplace.

Impressively, pricing is given for a wide range of grades and include
a range rather than a single value. With Morgan dollars, for instance,
prices are included for forty different grades: P-1, FR-2, AG-3, G-4,
G-6, VG-8, VG-10, F-12, F-15, VF-20, VF-25, VF-30, VF-35, XF-40,
XF-45, AU-50, AU-53, AU-55, AU-58, MS-60, MS-61, MS-62, MS-63, MS-64,
MS-65, MS-66, MS-67, MS-68, MS-69, MS-70, PR-61, PR-62, PR-63, PR-64,
PR-65, PR-66, PR-67, PR-68, PR-69, and PR-70.

You can also use the site to search for individual auction results.


Teletrade USA Coin Price Guide
http://www.teletrade.com/coins/search.asp?pguide=1

As with Heritage's Value Index, free registration provides access to
this information. The prices are based on Teletrade's own auctions.
Unlike Heritage's Value Index and the other price guides, the
information here isn't presented in an easy-to-use grid. You search
for prices realized in past auctions of coins based on parameters of
your choosing, such as denomination, year, mint, grade, and slab.

Teletrade Non-USA Coin Price Guide provides pricing information for
world coins, from Afghanistan to Yugoslavia.


PCGS Price Guide
http://www.pcgs.com/prices

The prices in this free online price guide are generally inflated
compared with other retail price guides. It has been described as a
dealer price list that includes higher-than-market prices that dealers
would like to get for their coins rather than accurate reflections of
the market. It can be useful, but you have to subtract about 25
percent to arrive at true retail prices, depending on the series.


Numismedia Price Guide
http://numismedia.com/fmv/fmv.shtml

This online service is similar to PCGS Price Guide, and it suffers
from the same inflated pricing information. But beginning in February
2003, the service charges a subscription fee to see pricing for grades
above MS-60 -- a whopping $96/year, with other subscription plans
available. Compared to PCGS Price Guide, pricing is given for more
grades. With Morgan dollars, for instance, while PCGS Price Guide
provides grades for ten grades, Numismedia does so for twenty.


Numismatic News, Coins Magazine, Coin Prices
http://www.krause.com

The price guides in these Krause Publications periodicals suffer
mainly from lack of use compared with other more commonly used and
quoted pricing information. A subscription to Numismatic News (weekly)
is $32 per year, Coins Magazine (monthly newsstand magazine) is $25.98
per year, Coin Prices (bimonthly) is $18.98 per year. Numismatic News
and Coins Magazine both include articles and lots of other useful
information.


COINage
http://www.coinagemag.com

This price guide has the same limitation as those in Krause
Publications periodicals. An introductory subscription is $11.88 per
year. COINage is a good read for the articles and columns.


Standard Catalog of World Coins
http://www.krause.com

Krause Publications also publishes this guide, which is 2,304 pages
and lists for $52.95. The book covers the period from 1901 to the
present. Related Krause books include Standard Catalog of World Coins,
19th Century, 1801-1900; Standard Catalog of World Coins, 1701-1800;
Standard Catalog of World Coins, 1601-1700. Despite their size, these
books provide overviews rather than all-inclusive lists of world
coins.


Wildwinds
http://www.wildwinds.com/coins

This free online service provides auction results for ancient coins,
primarily from eBay. Included are Greek, Roman, Celtic, and Byzantine
coins. Attributions are included too, but they're only as trustworthy
as the sellers offering them.


CoinArchives.com
http://www.coinarchives.com

This is another free service that provides the auction results for
ancient coins, but in this case primarily from European auctions,
which are typically for higher-end coins than those auctioned through
eBay.


--

Coin Collecting: Consumer Guide: http://rg.ancients.info/guide
Glomming: Coin Connoisseurship: http://rg.ancients.info/glom
Bogos: Counterfeit Coins: http://rg.ancients.info/bogos