4th Bush Recession could lift Romney, sink McCain

Here we go, bracing for yet another in a series of "Dubya Recessions,"
but this time at the end of his, the worst of just about any of the US
presidencies. What effect could this news have on the race?

First, a lot of the cognoscenti pundits have been saying for months
that Iraq would be the #1 issue. Not anymore, it would seem. With
the economy in a steady decline since Bush took office and with the US
Dollar at an historic low, Hillary Clinton has a shot at retooling her
whole campaign (which flopped mightily in Iowa) into the old standby
that worked for Bill...."It's the economy, stupid!" Whether this will
work against Obama or not of course remains to be seen, but history
proves that "bread and butter" issues are usually at the top of the
issues pile any time the country is not in a war, and a stunning
majority have already decided that we need to get the hell out of
Iraq. If the economy does rise to the #1 issue, Obama's in serious
trouble against Clinton going into Tsunami Tuesday...or is it Super
Tuesday? They keep changing the name! Incidently, the only pundit
who's had it right about the economy winding up as the #1 issue has
been Eleanor Clift of Newsweek/McLaughlin Group...that is, IF it
happens.

Second, CNN polling shows, without a doubt, that Romney also has
strong economic credentials among all likely voters, while McCain and
Giuliani don't. Giuliani's probably out of the picture after his
hopeless showing in Iowa (3%), so that leaves McCain to try to do
battle on a field for which he doesn't have good maps. When Iraq was
#1 on the voter hit parade, he had the advantage among right winger
Republicans. But now, fully 47% of "likelies" said that Romney was
the best on economic issues, while the next in line (Clinton) showed
in the 'teens, but still way ahead of McCain. Huckabee, of course,
has probably the worst showing of all at 3% in this poll.

McCain then has a double whammy to face...weak on economic issues AND
a very unpopular Iraq platform plank to try to bring to the RNC. If
McCain wins the big bow and tries that, a lot of the anti-war
Republicans will abandon ship, and since Paul isn't expected to last
much longer (at least as a Republican), they MIGHT go
"independent"...meaning they could vote for a Dem, if the anti-war
message is right (meaning Obama), or whatever third party offering
shows up. Paul, with his anti-war and anti-tax rhetoric, fills that
bill nicely and, despite his exclamations to the contrary, could very
well wind up a Libertarian Party nominee.

Lots of "ifs" could make this situation turn the campaign inside
out...such as "if" Bernanke doesn't do a Bush-ordered overnight rate
cut, and "if" the dollar keeps sinking against all foreign currencies
(it will, probably another 15-20% against the Euro) and "if" the
hemorrhaging of the prime mortgage market continues (it will, and will
get worse.) If all the "ifs" are answered affirmatively, then we have
a new ball game and it would then appear that the conventional wisdom
of Iraq being the deciding factor will not hold. If that happens,
Obama and McCain could suddenly find themselves going up a steep
upgrade even if both win New Hampshire, which I say is likely, while
Romney and Hillary coast to the nomination, which is likely if the
economy takes over as the #1 issue going into Super Tuesday. If the
latter happens, Clinton has pretty impressive numbers against Romney
in the theoretical match-up...as least for now.

What's she need to do? Back to health care, health care, health
care...greedy for-profit HMOs, drug companies and "doctor cabals" are
raping the economy, and people are already wise to it. If she does
that and the economy and health care wind up on top of the issues
heap, Hillary beats Obama and, most likely, Romney. Meanwhile,
McCain, should this scenario happen before Super Tuesday, may find
himself like he always has...on the outside looking in. What would
Romney need to do to fend her off and win? Well...his "I've got
experience running big corporations" message tickles Wall Streeters,
the investment class and the corporate types, but falls flat and
builds antipathy among working Americans. His only hope is to counter
Hillary on health care by pointing to his Massachusetts accomplishment
in that area...even if it doesn't solve a thing.

Advantage overall: Hillary...but she has to get there first,
especially by climbing deftly and very quickly out of the crater she
made for herself in Iowa. If, for some reason, the economy does NOT
take center stage among voters, Obama may well steamroller her on
Super Tuesday, and if that happens and McCain wins, it'll be a McCain
presidency. Who'd win in a Obama/Romney match up? Three-to-two and
pick 'em!