If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below. |
|
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
#1
|
|||
|
|||
Will raw coins become less or more popular this year?
Last year it became common knowledge among collectors that a coin
"certified" by grading service B is worth less than the same coin "certified" by service A, even though both have the same numerical grade and no problems noted. The PNG survey, the ANA Accugrade/Barry Stuppler hearing, and Coin World's submission of the same small group of coins to several grading services were all discussed at length here and on other online forums. Since all the dealers tell us that the collector coins are still in a bull market ("white hot" or "nuclear" are the adjectives sometimes used by the largest promoters), I wonder how long it will be before grading tightens up again. I remember the mid-to-late '80s when it took a coin purchased as an MS-65 to bring current MS-65 Graysheet bids at the new higher prices. Certain graders' MS-65s wouldn't bring Graysheet bid either, and MS-64 (the "borderline Gem" grade was born). My question tonight is not as complicated as asking for predictions on how grading standards will change in 2004, but simply whether slabbed coins will increase or decrease in popularity this year. I will ask this same question on rec.collecting.coins and the PCGS U.S. Coins Forum, and expect a few interesting responses with a fair amount of disagreement. I suspect that r.c.c. posters will sing the virtues of buying raw coins and learning how to grade while PCGS posters (with a greater percentage of dealers and high income collectors) will recommend slabbed coins. I enjoy collecting sets of better grade circulated U.S. coins which are not common enough or expensive enough to be promoted and sold in volume by those touting coins as an investment. My budget keeps me shopping for $20 to $200 coins, and about once a year treating myself to a $400 to $500 coin. Most of my collection is frankly not worth the slabbing fees of the respectable grading services, and I am finally comfortable grading the coins in the types I buy most often. I expect to hear someone say that higher prices and dramatic price jumps between coins in one grade and the next level down make it imperative to purchase coins certified by the one, two, or perhaps three most respected grading services. (Look at a 1901 or 1884-S Morgan Dollar's value as the grade exceeds XF, for example.) A few years ago, when we spent less time grading the graders, bottom feeder grading services did quite well calling an AU-55 coin MS-61 so a dealer could qute MS-60 and 63 retail prices and peddle the slab to an unsuspecting newbie looking for a bargain slabbed in an aura of respectability. Raw coins, according to the promoters of the top couple of grading services, will still remain the objects of misrepresentation, since the seller can claim that grading is subjective once the bargain-hunter is told by several informed buyers who either quote a small fraction of the purchase price or refuse to buy the coin for reasons insulting to the bargain hunter. The slab camp will say that raw coins will appeal only to fraudulent dealers and cheapskate collectors. I will try to play devil's advocate and will note that by best coin purchases in the last two years have been raw coins. When so much attention is paid to the likes of uncirculated CC Morgans, proof Franklins, and high grade late-date MS Walkers, it becomes next to impossible to rip one of these. My greatest enjoyment in coin collecting recently has been in finding a fellow collector or a dealer who makes no bets on how a coin might slab at one of the grading services and just lets me examine the coin and agrees to sell it at the going price for a grade upon which we both agree. Once in a blue moon (although I don't endorse that eBay seller) I can eben find a coin I need from a seller whose reputation preceds him. (Last year I even found a key date Barber Dime in an Axxugrade VG slab which is actually a solid Fine and is now a raw coin in one of my Dansco albums!) More often, I find better grade raw common dates and semi-keys in less-than-popular series at bargain prices since the dealers and serious collectors are spending too much time playing crackout and registry set games or concentrating on the dates which most collectors need. Raw coins will be more appealing to me this year than slabbed coins. I will buy a few more slabbed coins, especially if I venture into new areas of collecting. I will continue to enjoy reading about grading the graders, but will enjoy slowly increasing my own grading abilities. It looks like a good year for raw coins for me. What say you? |
Ads |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Fundamentally, the commodity being traded in a slab is the graders' "skills"
(read: consistency). A purchased grading opinion is an economic substitute for the coin purchaser's grading skills. The premiums paid for slabbed coins increase as slabbers' grading consistency increases and/or as purchasers' (collective) skills decrease. (This premium is distorted, but not eliminated, by coin buyers who ignore slabbers' opinions and grade coins in slabs as if they were raw, and by the market's interpretion of any given slabber's consistency.) Thus, your question asks our expectations of the relative changes in slabbers' consistency vs. coin purchasers' graders' skills. My gut feeling is that slabbers' consistency will improve over time; who knows how individual collectors' skills will change (up or down). That said, the question is imponderable. It's near-impossible to get an apples-to-apples comparison of raw vs. slabbed coin prices. In order to measure such premiums, you'd have to know that the two categories (slabbed vs. raw) are graded the same. Even if you could sell the identical coin (or group of coins) twice, once in a slab, and the other time raw, you couldn't distinguish which part of any price differential was due to the grading vs. other factors (such as timing of the sale, description, etc.). --Chris "Paul Robertz" wrote in message om... Last year it became common knowledge among collectors that a coin "certified" by grading service B is worth less than the same coin "certified" by service A, even though both have the same numerical grade and no problems noted. The PNG survey, the ANA Accugrade/Barry Stuppler hearing, and Coin World's submission of the same small group of coins to several grading services were all discussed at length here and on other online forums. Since all the dealers tell us that the collector coins are still in a bull market ("white hot" or "nuclear" are the adjectives sometimes used by the largest promoters), I wonder how long it will be before grading tightens up again. I remember the mid-to-late '80s when it took a coin purchased as an MS-65 to bring current MS-65 Graysheet bids at the new higher prices. Certain graders' MS-65s wouldn't bring Graysheet bid either, and MS-64 (the "borderline Gem" grade was born). My question tonight is not as complicated as asking for predictions on how grading standards will change in 2004, but simply whether slabbed coins will increase or decrease in popularity this year. I will ask this same question on rec.collecting.coins and the PCGS U.S. Coins Forum, and expect a few interesting responses with a fair amount of disagreement. I suspect that r.c.c. posters will sing the virtues of buying raw coins and learning how to grade while PCGS posters (with a greater percentage of dealers and high income collectors) will recommend slabbed coins. I enjoy collecting sets of better grade circulated U.S. coins which are not common enough or expensive enough to be promoted and sold in volume by those touting coins as an investment. My budget keeps me shopping for $20 to $200 coins, and about once a year treating myself to a $400 to $500 coin. Most of my collection is frankly not worth the slabbing fees of the respectable grading services, and I am finally comfortable grading the coins in the types I buy most often. I expect to hear someone say that higher prices and dramatic price jumps between coins in one grade and the next level down make it imperative to purchase coins certified by the one, two, or perhaps three most respected grading services. (Look at a 1901 or 1884-S Morgan Dollar's value as the grade exceeds XF, for example.) A few years ago, when we spent less time grading the graders, bottom feeder grading services did quite well calling an AU-55 coin MS-61 so a dealer could qute MS-60 and 63 retail prices and peddle the slab to an unsuspecting newbie looking for a bargain slabbed in an aura of respectability. Raw coins, according to the promoters of the top couple of grading services, will still remain the objects of misrepresentation, since the seller can claim that grading is subjective once the bargain-hunter is told by several informed buyers who either quote a small fraction of the purchase price or refuse to buy the coin for reasons insulting to the bargain hunter. The slab camp will say that raw coins will appeal only to fraudulent dealers and cheapskate collectors. I will try to play devil's advocate and will note that by best coin purchases in the last two years have been raw coins. When so much attention is paid to the likes of uncirculated CC Morgans, proof Franklins, and high grade late-date MS Walkers, it becomes next to impossible to rip one of these. My greatest enjoyment in coin collecting recently has been in finding a fellow collector or a dealer who makes no bets on how a coin might slab at one of the grading services and just lets me examine the coin and agrees to sell it at the going price for a grade upon which we both agree. Once in a blue moon (although I don't endorse that eBay seller) I can eben find a coin I need from a seller whose reputation preceds him. (Last year I even found a key date Barber Dime in an Axxugrade VG slab which is actually a solid Fine and is now a raw coin in one of my Dansco albums!) More often, I find better grade raw common dates and semi-keys in less-than-popular series at bargain prices since the dealers and serious collectors are spending too much time playing crackout and registry set games or concentrating on the dates which most collectors need. Raw coins will be more appealing to me this year than slabbed coins. I will buy a few more slabbed coins, especially if I venture into new areas of collecting. I will continue to enjoy reading about grading the graders, but will enjoy slowly increasing my own grading abilities. It looks like a good year for raw coins for me. What say you? -----= Posted via Newsfeeds.Com, Uncensored Usenet News =----- http://www.newsfeeds.com - The #1 Newsgroup Service in the World! -----== Over 100,000 Newsgroups - 19 Different Servers! =----- |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
"Chris S" chris(at)imt.xohost.com wrote in message ... Fundamentally, the commodity being traded in a slab is the graders' "skills" (read: consistency). Just to pick a nit :-) I would say "the commodity being traded in a slab is the graders' "skills"" (read accuracy) Now to answer the question with my opinion: Slabbed coins will continue to be popular and probably increase in popularity for many coins. I don't think that an increase in popularity of slabbed coins equates directly to a decrease in the popularity of raw coins so I think raw coins will stay about the same. That is, raw coins in 2004 will be by far the majority of coins bought sold and traded :-) Dale Don't care for slabbed coins but they have their place. |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
"Paul Robertz" wrote in message om... Last year it became common knowledge among collectors that a coin "certified" by grading service B is worth less than the same coin "certified" by service A, even though both have the same numerical grade and no problems noted. The PNG survey, the ANA Accugrade/Barry Stuppler hearing, and Coin World's submission of the same small group of coins to several grading services were all discussed at length here and on other online forums. I am not sure you are correct in this statement. It appears to me that the market believes certain grading services overgrade their coins, thus the same coin would have a higher grade at some grading companies, but would be worth less than a coin with the same indicated grade on the slab. Since all the dealers tell us that the collector coins are still in a bull market ("white hot" or "nuclear" are the adjectives sometimes used by the largest promoters), I wonder how long it will be before grading tightens up again. I remember the mid-to-late '80s when it took a coin purchased as an MS-65 to bring current MS-65 Graysheet bids at the new higher prices. Certain graders' MS-65s wouldn't bring Graysheet bid either, and MS-64 (the "borderline Gem" grade was born). I can remember whan any MS morgan in a slab was worth $100 too. things change. grading standards have fluctuated a lot, and will probably fluctuate some more over time. My question tonight is not as complicated as asking for predictions on how grading standards will change in 2004, but simply whether slabbed coins will increase or decrease in popularity this year. Its clear that they are very popular, and I think that trend will continue. just a guess, since I have no credentials as a prophet. I will ask this same question on rec.collecting.coins and the PCGS U.S. Coins Forum, and expect a few interesting responses with a fair amount of disagreement. I suspect that r.c.c. posters will sing the virtues of buying raw coins and learning how to grade while PCGS posters (with a greater percentage of dealers and high income collectors) will recommend slabbed coins. I enjoy collecting sets of better grade circulated U.S. coins which are not common enough or expensive enough to be promoted and sold in volume by those touting coins as an investment. My budget keeps me shopping for $20 to $200 coins, and about once a year treating myself to a $400 to $500 coin. Most of my collection is frankly not worth the slabbing fees of the respectable grading services, and I am finally comfortable grading the coins in the types I buy most often. I expect to hear someone say that higher prices and dramatic price jumps between coins in one grade and the next level down make it imperative to purchase coins certified by the one, two, or perhaps three most respected grading services. (Look at a 1901 or 1884-S Morgan Dollar's value as the grade exceeds XF, for example.) A few years ago, when we spent less time grading the graders, bottom feeder grading services did quite well calling an AU-55 coin MS-61 so a dealer could qute MS-60 and 63 retail prices and peddle the slab to an unsuspecting newbie looking for a bargain slabbed in an aura of respectability. Raw coins, according to the promoters of the top couple of grading services, will still remain the objects of misrepresentation, since the seller can claim that grading is subjective once the bargain-hunter is told by several informed buyers who either quote a small fraction of the purchase price or refuse to buy the coin for reasons insulting to the bargain hunter. The slab camp will say that raw coins will appeal only to fraudulent dealers and cheapskate collectors. I will try to play devil's advocate and will note that by best coin purchases in the last two years have been raw coins. When so much attention is paid to the likes of uncirculated CC Morgans, proof Franklins, and high grade late-date MS Walkers, it becomes next to impossible to rip one of these. My greatest enjoyment in coin collecting recently has been in finding a fellow collector or a dealer who makes no bets on how a coin might slab at one of the grading services and just lets me examine the coin and agrees to sell it at the going price for a grade upon which we both agree. Once in a blue moon (although I don't endorse that eBay seller) I can eben find a coin I need from a seller whose reputation preceds him. (Last year I even found a key date Barber Dime in an Axxugrade VG slab which is actually a solid Fine and is now a raw coin in one of my Dansco albums!) More often, I find better grade raw common dates and semi-keys in less-than-popular series at bargain prices since the dealers and serious collectors are spending too much time playing crackout and registry set games or concentrating on the dates which most collectors need. Raw coins will be more appealing to me this year than slabbed coins. I will buy a few more slabbed coins, especially if I venture into new areas of collecting. I will continue to enjoy reading about grading the graders, but will enjoy slowly increasing my own grading abilities. It looks like a good year for raw coins for me. What say you? |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
"Dale Hallmark" wrote:
"Chris S" chris(at)imt.xohost.com wrote in message ... Fundamentally, the commodity being traded in a slab is the graders' "skills" (read: consistency). Just to pick a nit :-) I would say "the commodity being traded in a slab is the graders' "skills"" (read accuracy) I hear where you're coming from. At the beginning the r.c.c. "Slabbing Wars" about a year ago, I thought in terms of accuracy, too. I have since focused on consistency application of any standard, rather than accuracy (which I take to mean consistently hitting a unified grading standard). I figure that of the two things I'd like to be consistent (standards and graders' application of those standards), the slabbers only control the latter. Besides, I consider application of the standards to be more important: Even with each grading company defining its own standards, high consistency would allow the market to translate among the standards; while cumbersome, a useful comparison could be drawn. But even if all slabbers used identical standards, useful comparison would be impossible if you couldn't trust them to apply those standards consistently. It would be great for collectors to have both uniform standards and consistent grading within those standards, but I see little pressure on the slabbers to unify their standards, so I've given up hope. Frankly, if I were a slabber, I wouldn't either--my product would be more a commodity, and competition would increase. Dissimilar grading standards among slabbers are called "barriers to entry" in business lingo, and they work. Now to answer the question with my opinion: Slabbed coins will continue to be popular and probably increase in popularity for many coins. A factor that supports this conclusion is the decreasing cost to slab as a percentage of coin value. If the coin market stays strong (prices go up) and slabbing fees stay the same, slabbing's popularity should increase. Ironically, even the slabbers who go to The Dark Side provide indirect value to the market in the sense that they frequently charge low fees; their tactics makes it harder for first- and second-tier slabbers to raise prices, even though the third-tier slabbers' opinions are worth less than theirs. --Chris -----= Posted via Newsfeeds.Com, Uncensored Usenet News =----- http://www.newsfeeds.com - The #1 Newsgroup Service in the World! -----== Over 100,000 Newsgroups - 19 Different Servers! =----- |
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Counterfeit detection primer -- periodic post | Reid Goldsborough | Coins | 10 | December 14th 03 09:54 PM |
Counterfeit detection primer -- periodic post | Jim | Coins | 19 | November 17th 03 05:37 AM |
US Territories and... | Grandpa | Coins | 29 | September 22nd 03 08:11 PM |
Coin Talk Needs You | Peter T Davis | Coins | 51 | September 16th 03 01:19 AM |
Help on telling repro | Linda | Coins | 11 | July 30th 03 02:03 AM |