bookseller?

"Francis A. Miniter" writes:

If you read the responses, I think you will see that most of us have concluded
that the person was not listing books for sale but checking out what he could
get selling them retail if he were to buy them and list them.

Most of us, perhaps, but not all of us. There is a definite advantage to not
having to risk any capital or to have to maintain any kind of storage facility.
Also, the mere fact that a book is listed online at a certain price doesn't
mean that anyone is buying it at that price or any price. The online listings
would be useful information if they were prices that people said they were
willing to pay. It is not unusual to see books being listed for thousands
of dollars at Amazon, just because some bookseller is waiting for someone
who is both rich enough and desperate enough to pay it. It doesn't mean that
someone can actually sell that book at any price.

Someone suggested that the books move too quickly for such a scheme to work.
I'm not sure that is true.

What I'm wondering now is how many booksellers might be listing the very
same books, all sitting on the library sale shelf.
--
Ignorantly,
Allan Adler
* Disclaimer: I am a guest and *not* a member of the MIT CSAIL. My actions and
* comments do not reflect in any way on MIT. Also, I am nowhere near Boston.

"Allan Adler" wrote in message
...
"Francis A. Miniter" writes:

If you read the responses, I think you will see that most of us have
concluded
that the person was not listing books for sale but checking out what he
could
get selling them retail if he were to buy them and list them.

Most of us, perhaps, but not all of us. There is a definite advantage to
not
having to risk any capital or to have to maintain any kind of storage
facility.
Also, the mere fact that a book is listed online at a certain price
doesn't
mean that anyone is buying it at that price or any price. The online
listings
would be useful information if they were prices that people said they were
willing to pay. It is not unusual to see books being listed for thousands
of dollars at Amazon, just because some bookseller is waiting for someone
who is both rich enough and desperate enough to pay it. It doesn't mean
that
someone can actually sell that book at any price.

Someone suggested that the books move too quickly for such a scheme to
work.
I'm not sure that is true.

What I'm wondering now is how many booksellers might be listing the very
same books, all sitting on the library sale shelf.
--
Ignorantly,
Allan Adler

Into conspiracy theories, eh?

An intelligent bookseller (or picker) would have base his
picks on whether the market was already flooded, if there
were known needs for the books *at a certain price point*,
etc. But most of the automated systems I'm acquainted
with, are just databases tied to an ISBN. I can't imagine
anyone listing books he hasn't bought yet.

Kris
Skeptic

"Kris Baker" writes:

Allan Adler wrote:
What I'm wondering now is how many booksellers might be listing the very
same books, all sitting on the library sale shelf.

Into conspiracy theories, eh?

Actually, no. First of all, by wondering how many booksellers might be listing
the very same book, one doesn't rule out the possibility that the number is
zero, which is your position. Second, even if one assumes the number is
greater than one, it is entirely possible that the booksellers in question
are not acting in concert but that, instead, they coincidentally happen, in
some cases, to have listed the same book. Coincidences do happen and the
recognition of that fact is diametrically opposed to the main premises of
most consipiracy theories (leaving aside the outright lies).

An intelligent bookseller (or picker) would have base his picks on whether
the market was already flooded, if there were known needs for the books *at
a certain price point*, etc. But most of the automated systems I'm acquainted
with, are just databases tied to an ISBN. I can't imagine anyone listing
books he hasn't bought yet.

You might be right. I'm keeping an open mind about it. But, since you
seem to know how these systems actually work, which is an interesting
topic in its own right, maybe you can say a little more about them.
For starters, what are the automated systems you're acquainted with?
--
Ignorantly,
Allan Adler
* Disclaimer: I am a guest and *not* a member of the MIT CSAIL. My actions and
* comments do not reflect in any way on MIT. Also, I am nowhere near Boston.

On 15 Sep 2007 23:02:20 -0400, Allan Adler
wrote:

First of all, by wondering how many booksellers might be listing
the very same book, one doesn't rule out the possibility that the number is
zero, which is your position. Second, even if one assumes the number is
greater than one, it is entirely possible that the booksellers in question
are not acting in concert but that, instead, they coincidentally happen, in
some cases, to have listed the same book. Coincidences do happen and the
recognition of that fact is diametrically opposed to the main premises of
most consipiracy theories (leaving aside the outright lies).

I think you need to go lie down for awhile.

On Sep 15, 7:48 am, "Francis A. Miniter"
wrote:
Bill wrote:
On Sep 12, 7:01 am, Allan Adler wrote:

Recently, I was at a library and noticed someone sitting by some books
being sold by the library. This person was using a laptop to connect
via wifi to Amazon. Apparently he/she was looking up the sale books
at Amazon, but I couldn't see in greater detail what was being done.

My guess is that he/she is listed at Amazon as a bookseller and was
listing the library sale books as being available from him/her, setting
the price at a level that would be competitive with the ones already
listed. Since the library typically sells the books for no more than
$2 each, that could be quite profitable if the book is ever sold by
that bookseller. Furthermore, the bookseller doesn't have to warehouse
the books: the library does it for him/her. Even the wifi hotspot is
provided by the library. True, an individual book might be sold by the
library before it can be ordered online, but these things happen and,
if the book is subsequently ordered, a bookseller can simply report
that the book is no longer available. That might reflect badly on the
bookseller, from Amazon's point of view. But a conscientious bookseller
engaged in this particular enterprise might regularly visit the library
book sale books and update the inventory to see which ones are still
available, making the scenario less likely in which a book is ordered
and found not to be available.

In fact, that might be what this individual was really doing: updating
the inventory and cancelling his/her listings of books that were no longer
available.

I have to admit, that does sound pretty enterprising. And one does often
find good books on sale at libraries. I can't go to every library to see
what it has to offer and, in effect, this bookseller is offering the
service of doing it for me.

Actually, the person sounds rather petty and stupid. In
the first place, the cheap nitwit is listing books that he
does not have in his possession.

If you read the responses, I think you will see that most of us have concluded
that the person was not listing books for sale but checking out what he could
get selling them retail if he were to buy them and list them.

Francis A. Miniter- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

You may be right, but I was using the "let's assume
the poster is correct -- then what?" approach.

On Sep 15, 6:28 pm, Allan Adler wrote:
"Francis A. Miniter" writes:

If you read the responses, I think you will see that most of us have concluded
that the person was not listing books for sale but checking out what he could
get selling them retail if he were to buy them and list them.

Most of us, perhaps, but not all of us. There is a definite advantage to not
having to risk any capital or to have to maintain any kind of storage facility.

Exactly how much "capital" would we be talking about
here? If the library in question is anything like the
library near where I live, the "capital" would rarely be
more than $10, because most of their stuff has an
Amazon Low Price of a couple of dollars, and therefore
would not be worth the bother.

Also, the mere fact that a book is listed online at a certain price doesn't
mean that anyone is buying it at that price or any price. The online listings
would be useful information if they were prices that people said they were
willing to pay. It is not unusual to see books being listed for thousands
of dollars at Amazon, just because some bookseller is waiting for someone
who is both rich enough and desperate enough to pay it. It doesn't mean that
someone can actually sell that book at any price.

I would maintain that approach I suggested to
valuing books is one worth considering. You
throw out the fantasy prices, those which are
ridiculously high. You also throw out the
suspiciously low prices. Then you average
the prices left. For example, let's say a dealer
is asking $500 for a book that four reputable
dealers are asking $30, $35, $40, and $50
dollars for. I would value that book at $38.75,
or, we might as well say, about $40. If there
was a suspicious listing of the same book
in the same condition for $3, I would throw
that price along with the fantasy price. That
approach is far from infalliable, but is certainly
more accurate than looking up the price in
somebody's printed book.

I certainly agree that listings for many books
on Amazon include fantasy prices. Maybe
there are a lot of rubes on the net with money
to burn these days. Maybe they feel they can
get more "culture" from a book with a wildly
inflated price tag...

Someone suggested that the books move too quickly for such a scheme to work.
I'm not sure that is true.

It was a valid point. What sort of "entrepreneur"
is going to risk a flock of Amazon lack of fulfillment
ratings just because his "capital" is not sufficient to
allow him to shell out $10 or $20 dollars for a number
of books worth many times that amount, judging
by the Amazon Low Price?

What I'm wondering now is how many booksellers might be listing the very
same books, all sitting on the library sale shelf.

Again, just for fun assuming your suspicions are
correct, the ones doing that are likely the "booksellers"
who peddle to the donation store on a bicyle with big
wire baskets on the rear wheel, who wear glasses
with lenses looking like the bottoms of Coca Cola
bottles, who wear heavy overcoats on a hot day, and
conduct business from a cockroach-infested attic
they reside in over a garage.

More seriously, I personally think your suspicions
are baseless, because the library donation stores
in my area have -- on a typical day -- such a large
percentage of books with an Amazon Low Price
equal to or below the trifle the library is asking
for them. As for the few that would be worth
listing, any bookseller I know would much rather
shell out a few dollars for them than risk bad
customer ratings due to listing books he does
not actually have. You scenario suggests a dim
bulb of a book dealer saying to himself, "Gee,
someone just ordered this book I listed on
Amazon for $18. I had better rush over to the
library donation store and buy it for $2, then."
Seems like a trivial way to do business, but
then, since there seem to be so many "Shipping
Charge Scrounges" listing books for a penny,
so they can scrape out a dirty nickel, so to
speak, in the difference between what Amazon
reimburses them and what they actually pay
for postage and packing materials, I suppose
anything is possible. Sigh...

[Memo from the upstairs office.]
--
Ignorantly,
Allan Adler
* Disclaimer: I am a guest and *not* a member of the MIT CSAIL. My actions and
* comments do not reflect in any way on MIT. Also, I am nowhere near Boston.

Bill writes:

Allan Adler writes:
There is a definite advantage to not having to risk any capital or to
have to maintain any kind of storage facility.

Exactly how much "capital" would we be talking about here? If the library
in question is anything like the library near where I live, the "capital"
would rarely be more than $10, because most of their stuff has an Amazon
Low Price of a couple of dollars,and therefore would not be worth the bother.

Well, if the entire "inventory" of the bookseller consists of just the books
that I happened to see at that local library on that day, then I would
agree that it would be better to invest the capital. But if there are a lot
of local libraries, as is the case in some places, and if the bookseller
uses the sale books at all of them, then the required investment would be
much more significant, as would the implied storage requirements. Some
local libraries have entire basement rooms with dozens of shelves full of
sale books. One branch alone can have as many sale books as a small bookstore.

I would maintain that approach I suggested to valuing books is one worth
considering. You throw out the fantasy prices [...] You also throw out the
suspiciously low prices. Then you average the prices left.

That's a reasonable strategy. I would only point out, regarding the
ridiculously low prices, that they are not necessarily to be disregarded.
I have bought perfectly good books for well under a dollar. I don't know
why they are so cheap. There might be profits from savings on mailing, but
it's also possible that the booksellers with such low prices are trying to
build up their approval ratings as they start up their business and just
need to attract sales at any price, as long as they at least break even.

I certainly agree that listings for many books on Amazon include fantasy
prices. Maybe there are a lot of rubes on the net with money to burn these
days. Maybe they feel they can get more "culture" from a book with a wildly
inflated price tag...

For example, Laplace's Celestial Mechanics was published by Chelsea before
they went out of business. It is a 4 volume translation from French of his
great classic and the used price on Amazon was something like $2000 when
I looked it up some time ago. I think there are people who would consider
it worth it who are not rubes or culture wonks. Some libraries might
conceivably go that high since it is such an important classic and is
otherwise unavailable.

It was a valid point. What sort of "entrepreneur" is going to risk a
flock of Amazon lack of fulfillment ratings just because his "capital"
is not sufficient to allow him to shell out $10 or $20 dollars for a number
of books worth many times that amount, judging by the Amazon Low Price?

I agree that a bookseller has an interest in avoiding bad ratings. However,
there is a statistical rate at which the books tend to disappear and a
statistical rate at which they tend to be ordered. I expect that both are low.
If the bookseller checks his/her "inventories" much more frequently than that,
the likelihood of having an unavailable book ordered would also be low.
Even airlines over-"book", based on their statistical likelihood of having
too many passengers show up for a given flight.

Again, just for fun assuming your suspicions are correct,

Can we use the more neutral term "speculations"?

the ones doing that are likely the "booksellers" who
[speculation about life style and appearance
of hypothetical bookseller deleted]

Assuming there are some booksellers operating as I have described, it
is quite possible that they are not very successful. It is also possible
that they are making enough money to make it worth their while. One would
really have to study the number of books available, their prices, the rates
at which they get sold by branch libraries, they rates at which they tend to
be ordered on Amazon, the savings on storage, the necessary number of visits
to the library to update the data and do the math before drawing any reliable
conclusions about the relevant stochastic processes. We haven't done that, so
it is better to keep an open mind about it.

Next time I see this person, I'll ask them about it. He/she was perfectly
normally dressed, didn't smell bad and probably would have given me a civil
and articulate answer.
--
Ignorantly,
Allan Adler
* Disclaimer: I am a guest and *not* a member of the MIT CSAIL. My actions and
* comments do not reflect in any way on MIT. Also, I am nowhere near Boston.

"R. Totale" wrote in message
...
On 15 Sep 2007 23:02:20 -0400, Allan Adler
wrote:

First of all, by wondering how many booksellers might be listing
the very same book, one doesn't rule out the possibility that the number
is
zero, which is your position. Second, even if one assumes the number is
greater than one, it is entirely possible that the booksellers in question
are not acting in concert but that, instead, they coincidentally happen,
in
some cases, to have listed the same book. Coincidences do happen and the
recognition of that fact is diametrically opposed to the main premises of
most consipiracy theories (leaving aside the outright lies).

I think you need to go lie down for awhile.

I think we all do.

Meanwhile, the OP can go do his own research.

Allan Adler wrote:
"Francis A. Miniter" writes:

If you read the responses, I think you will see that most of us have concluded
that the person was not listing books for sale but checking out what he could
get selling them retail if he were to buy them and list them.

Most of us, perhaps, but not all of us. There is a definite advantage to not
having to risk any capital or to have to maintain any kind of storage facility.

Leaving books you're listing at the public library sale is going to be
about as successful as putting them on the sidewalk in front of your
house WRT being able to go get them again after you've made a sale.

Also, the mere fact that a book is listed online at a certain price doesn't
mean that anyone is buying it at that price or any price.

Certainly.

The online listings
would be useful information if they were prices that people said they were
willing to pay. It is not unusual to see books being listed for thousands
of dollars at Amazon, just because some bookseller is waiting for someone
who is both rich enough and desperate enough to pay it. It doesn't mean that
someone can actually sell that book at any price.

That's true, over the course of time for certain books; but for some
books that will work.

Someone suggested that the books move too quickly for such a scheme to work.
I'm not sure that is true.

You're welcome to run any field tests you care to make. Do let us know
what the results are.

What I'm wondering now is how many booksellers might be listing the very
same books, all sitting on the library sale shelf.

Probably almost none, since their fulfillment rate will quickly fall
below the thresholds of the big online services.

Allan Adler wrote:
[snip]

I agree that a bookseller has an interest in avoiding bad ratings. However,
there is a statistical rate at which the books tend to disappear and a
statistical rate at which they tend to be ordered. I expect that both are low.
If the bookseller checks his/her "inventories" much more frequently than that,
the likelihood of having an unavailable book ordered would also be low.
Even airlines over-"book", based on their statistical likelihood of having
too many passengers show up for a given flight.

While there are theoretical models in which such a strategy could work,
most of them are so unlikely to follow real-world trends as to make
playing the lottery a better choice.

You'd have to have a library with a hefty collection of valuable books
that keep being put out for sale at low rates, where almost no one
except this bookseller comes and buys them, and the book sale is one
that allows the bookseller access within the time frame required by the
listing services for shipping, which I believe is either 2 days or 3
days for Amazon.

Valuable books tend to disappear from library sales much faster than
they are ordered online, but the returns from the eventual sale nearly
always makes it worthwhile to snap it up right away for the astute
seller. It's just too darn risky to do otherwise.

[snip]

Assuming there are some booksellers operating as I have described, it
is quite possible that they are not very successful. It is also possible
that they are making enough money to make it worth their while.

The latter case probably happens about as often as winged monkeys make
their exit from one's nether regions. Having assisted a bookseller who
was hunting for inventory at library sales in the face of other
booksellers doing the same thing, I know that such a possibility is not
worth considering for someone who's planning on eating based on the results.

One would
really have to study the number of books available, their prices, the rates
at which they get sold by branch libraries, they rates at which they tend to
be ordered on Amazon, the savings on storage, the necessary number of visits
to the library to update the data and do the math before drawing any reliable
conclusions about the relevant stochastic processes. We haven't done that, so
it is better to keep an open mind about it.

Or one could go to a library sale after finding out who are the local
booksellers and seeing what is left over after they've picked the place
clean.

Next time I see this person, I'll ask them about it. He/she was perfectly
normally dressed, didn't smell bad and probably would have given me a civil
and articulate answer.

And probably was doing what Frances and I have said.