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Will raw coins become less or more popular this year?
Last year it became common knowledge among collectors that a coin
"certified" by grading service B is worth less than the same coin "certified" by service A, even though both have the same numerical grade and no problems noted. The PNG survey, the ANA Accugrade/Barry Stuppler hearing, and Coin World's submission of the same small group of coins to several grading services were all discussed at length here and on other online forums. Since all the dealers tell us that the collector coins are still in a bull market ("white hot" or "nuclear" are the adjectives sometimes used by the largest promoters), I wonder how long it will be before grading tightens up again. I remember the mid-to-late '80s when it took a coin purchased as an MS-65 to bring current MS-65 Graysheet bids at the new higher prices. Certain graders' MS-65s wouldn't bring Graysheet bid either, and MS-64 (the "borderline Gem" grade was born). My question tonight is not as complicated as asking for predictions on how grading standards will change in 2004, but simply whether slabbed coins will increase or decrease in popularity this year. I will ask this same question on rec.collecting.coins and the PCGS U.S. Coins Forum, and expect a few interesting responses with a fair amount of disagreement. I suspect that r.c.c. posters will sing the virtues of buying raw coins and learning how to grade while PCGS posters (with a greater percentage of dealers and high income collectors) will recommend slabbed coins. I enjoy collecting sets of better grade circulated U.S. coins which are not common enough or expensive enough to be promoted and sold in volume by those touting coins as an investment. My budget keeps me shopping for $20 to $200 coins, and about once a year treating myself to a $400 to $500 coin. Most of my collection is frankly not worth the slabbing fees of the respectable grading services, and I am finally comfortable grading the coins in the types I buy most often. I expect to hear someone say that higher prices and dramatic price jumps between coins in one grade and the next level down make it imperative to purchase coins certified by the one, two, or perhaps three most respected grading services. (Look at a 1901 or 1884-S Morgan Dollar's value as the grade exceeds XF, for example.) A few years ago, when we spent less time grading the graders, bottom feeder grading services did quite well calling an AU-55 coin MS-61 so a dealer could qute MS-60 and 63 retail prices and peddle the slab to an unsuspecting newbie looking for a bargain slabbed in an aura of respectability. Raw coins, according to the promoters of the top couple of grading services, will still remain the objects of misrepresentation, since the seller can claim that grading is subjective once the bargain-hunter is told by several informed buyers who either quote a small fraction of the purchase price or refuse to buy the coin for reasons insulting to the bargain hunter. The slab camp will say that raw coins will appeal only to fraudulent dealers and cheapskate collectors. I will try to play devil's advocate and will note that by best coin purchases in the last two years have been raw coins. When so much attention is paid to the likes of uncirculated CC Morgans, proof Franklins, and high grade late-date MS Walkers, it becomes next to impossible to rip one of these. My greatest enjoyment in coin collecting recently has been in finding a fellow collector or a dealer who makes no bets on how a coin might slab at one of the grading services and just lets me examine the coin and agrees to sell it at the going price for a grade upon which we both agree. Once in a blue moon (although I don't endorse that eBay seller) I can eben find a coin I need from a seller whose reputation preceds him. (Last year I even found a key date Barber Dime in an Axxugrade VG slab which is actually a solid Fine and is now a raw coin in one of my Dansco albums!) More often, I find better grade raw common dates and semi-keys in less-than-popular series at bargain prices since the dealers and serious collectors are spending too much time playing crackout and registry set games or concentrating on the dates which most collectors need. Raw coins will be more appealing to me this year than slabbed coins. I will buy a few more slabbed coins, especially if I venture into new areas of collecting. I will continue to enjoy reading about grading the graders, but will enjoy slowly increasing my own grading abilities. It looks like a good year for raw coins for me. What say you? |
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